An Analysis of Motorists’ Route Choice Using Stated Preference Techniques

This paper presents some results of an analysis of motorists' route choice based on stated preference responses. This is done for both an inter-urban and urban route choice context. The nature of the study is exploratory; the analysis being based upon a pilot survey of some 79 motorists undertaken in March/April 1984. The quality and nature of the responses are assessed in terms of a 'rationality' test and also through a consideration of lexicographical forms of decision making. The formal quantitative analysis examines the ranked preferences of motorists by means of an ordered multinomial logit model. Detailed results are presented for various formulations of the representative utility function to assess the influence of various relevant variables upon mute choice and to identify the best explanation of motorists' stated route preferences in both route choice contexts. Values of time are derived for a variety of rodel specifications as part of this consideration of the usefullness of the ranking approach to an analysis of motorists route choice

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position

Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations

Interest in Parkway stations emerged in the 1980s. These act as convenient out-of-town stations for inter-urban rail journeys. There were 13 so-called Parkway stations in Great Britain in 1999 and two have subsequently been opened. This paper reports the development and application of a new Parkway forecasting model which was conducted for the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), undertaken as part of an extensive update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which recommends demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon inter-urban journeys of over 80 km.The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data and its properties are illustrated with two case study applications. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalised cost elasticity.In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and shown that Parkway users have different preferences to rail travellers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces

Diverting Inter-Urban Car Users to Rail: Results from a Revealed Preference Mode Choice Model

This paper reports disaggregate mode choice models based on the actual choices made by business and leisure travellers on inter-urban journeys which involved crossing the Pennines. The models explain choices as a function of the times and costs of each mode and of train headway and interchange. The models are an extension of those previously reported by Oscar Faber TPA as part of their Trans-Pennine Rail Strategy Study, involving a more detailed examination of functional form and disaggregation by journey purpose. The research reported here was undertaken as part of an ESRC funded project examining the potential for diverting inter-urban car and air passengers to rail. There have been very few studies of inter-modal interaction for inter-urban travel and therefore little is known about the cross- elasticities. The findings discussed here are based on a preferred functional form of mode choice model. The results for leisure travel are generally very satisfactory, with an important distinction identified between group and solus travel. However, we place more reservations on the results ohtained from the business model

Evaluation of the Use and Non-Use Benefits of Public Transport: Report Number 2 – Application of the Method.

In this paper, we present results of a survey designed to discover the value people place on the retention of a bus service. The survey consisted of two parts; a travel diary, and a follow-up interview designed to explore respondents' reactions to removal of the bus services and the willingness to pay for its retention. The survey was undertaken in two contrasting areas: Hawksworth, in Leeds, a low income area of predominantly Council housing and Rainow, in Cheshire, a village with high car and home ownership. Most respondents in Hawksworth were regular bus users; the reverse was the case in Rainow. Typically, it appeared that bus users enjoy a consumer surplus on their journeys of the order of 100% with a higher value for the small number of work journeys in Rainow. Non-use values appear to be very significant, with a higher valuation amongst non-users than users. On average, residents were willing to pay some 60 pence per week to preserve the route as a whole. In Hawksworth, the corresponding values were 50 pence for the specific route serving the estate, and 75 pence for the network as a whole. It was generally agreed that services to workplaces, shops, schools and medical facilities were the highest priority, with weekday peak and weekday busy time services taking priority over Saturdays, evening and Sundays. In terms of priority groups, pensioners were always ranked first; in general these were followed by the unemployed and children; non-users in Hawksworth however ranked the unemployed last. The practical use of these results will be considered in a further project looking at actual and potential ways for ranking services for subsidy

Evaluation of the use and non-use benefits of public transport: report number 1 – development of a survey methodology

This paper reports on the development of a survey methodology to discover the value people place on the retention of local public transport services, both for their own expected use and as a standby, for the use of others or for the benefits in terms of reduced congestion, improved environment and accessibility they might bring. A survey of the literature suggested that numerous problems of potential bias would be faced. The most serious were likely to be strategic bias, starting point bias, information bias and social-norm bias. Other problems were choice of payment mechanism, how to obtain household rather than individual valuations and non-response bias. Initially a set of exploratory interviews were undertaken. These confirmed that people were able to understand the issues involved, but that they had difficulty particularly with open-ended willingness to pay questions and with assigning values to different types of benefit. They were also sensitive to the payment mechanism, being very hostile to the idea of a subscription scheme. Based on these interviews, attempts were made to design a self completion questionnaire. However, two major problems were encountered. One was the low level of response (20% or less). The second was evidence (confirmed by follow up interviews) of incomplete response, misunderstanding of questions and a failure to think through the full implications of the situations and responses postulated. This led us to develop a new technique, based on hand delivery and collection of a travel diary, which was used as a basis for a follow-up interview. This enabled the interview to be structured towards the unique circumstances of the individual, to explore the options available as alternatives to the existing mode, and to obtain use and non use values in the context of a detailed discussion of the use and importance of local bus services

Passenger Rail Statistics Following the Privatisation of British Rail.

In common with other major industries, the rail industry requires significant amounts of high quality information for successful operation. Information relating to the demand and supply of rail services is required to ensure that appropriate services are provided at minimum cost. Given the recent explosion of information technology, data on demand and supply is readily accessible and much improved. The benefits to the industry arising from such improvements should be maintained under the new organisational structures brought about by the 1993 Transport Act. It is the aim of this note to outline current sources of information and key statistics and raise the issue of what provisions are being made to ensure that they are maintained in a consistent and compatible format following privatisation

Diverting Inter-Urban Car Users to Rail: Results from a Revealed Preference Mode Choice Model

This paper reports disaggregate mode choice models based on the actual choices made by business and leisure travellers on inter-urban journeys which involved crossing the Pennines. The models explain choices as a function of the times and costs of each mode and of train headway and interchange. The models are an extension of those previously reported by Oscar Faber TPA as part of their Trans-Pennine Rail Strategy Study, involving a more detailed examination of functional form and disaggregation by journey purpose. The research reported here was undertaken as part of an ESRC funded project examining the potential for diverting inter-urban car and air passengers to rail. There have been very few studies of inter-modal interaction for inter-urban travel and therefore little is known about the cross- elasticities. The findings discussed here are based on a preferred functional form of mode choice model. The results for leisure travel are generally very satisfactory, with an important distinction identified between group and solus travel. However, we place more reservations on the results ohtained from the business model

Aerial applications, Great Britain 2001

Includes bibliographical referencesAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:6428. 455(184) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo